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It was two months ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.